
Two Forecasting Fails
Fail One Only envisaging one potential outcome. As a realist with an optimistic bias, I catch myself with this one more often than I would like. I only picture the successful outcome. The positivity sometimes serves me well, but it also makes for a bigger/slower adjustment if things don’t go as anticipated. ‘Foreseeing’ only a good outcome can be like “she’ll be right” – it works well if it goes well. A better version is to forecast 3 versions. Ideal,

















